Can Chelsea make it three wins in a row against Manchester City in Champions League final?

The fact that Chelsea have just beaten Manchester City for the second time in less than a month means that punters don’t know who to put their money on in the Champions League winner odds. Yes, the two sides still have one more fixture to play against each other, and it’s the biggest of the lot: the Champions League final, which at the moment still looks set to be played in Istanbul, Turkey.

Chelsea’s 2-1 Premier League win over Manchester City followed the Blues’ 1-0 win over Pep Guardiola’s side in the FA Cup semi-finals last month, and it’s becoming clear that Chelsea boss Thomas Tuchel has a bit of an edge over the Premier League champions elect. The question is, can the west London side repeat the trick in the big one?

The power of momentum

While a side as good as Manchester City can never be ruled out in the odds on the UEFA Champions League on the basis of two matches, there’s no doubt that Chelsea will be brimming with confidence in the build-up the final. Both performances showed the Blues’ ability to keep Manchester City’s rip-roaring attack at arm’s length, and Tuchel will be readying his troops to do the same come the showpiece event of Europe’s premier club competition.

Chelsea have momentum on their side in terms of the head-to-head, but there are still caveats. If it hadn’t been for a fluffed penalty from Sergio Agüero on the stroke of half-time in the recent league meeting, City would have gone in at the break with a 2-0 lead, and that would have been a real mountain for Chelsea to climb. Those are the kind of small mistakes that you wouldn’t expect to happen in the high-stakes situation of a Champions League final, and there is a sense that Chelsea are yet to experience City at their brilliant best.

Guardiola’s plan of action

Guardiola is never without a plan, and you get the feeling that City’s coach is still keeping his cards close to his chest. The side that lined out against Chelsea in the league meeting featured a few changes in personnel, and a different formation, to that which Guardiola utilised against Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League semi-final. It could well be that he is guarding against revealing his tactics to Tuchel, and he might be crafting a master plan to get the better of Chelsea in the biggest meeting of all.

It’s been 11 years since Guardiola tasted victory in the Champions League, and when you combine that with the insatiable desire of his players to earn Manchester City’s maiden Champions League crown, then City will be a force to be reckoned with.

The task facing Tuchel is to ensure that his side is just as hungry to lift Europe’s biggest prize. Many of Chelsea’s players will no doubt be pinching themselves after making it to the Champions League final, but if Chelsea are to get that third victory over City on the trot they’ll need to ignore the occasion and replicate the performance of clashes gone by.